Cyclone Mocha, Bangladesh Situation Update (14 May 2023)
Wind speed: 130 km/h, not exceeding 150 km/h during landfall. Source: (BMD, IMD, ECMWF, GFS)
Landfall location : Southeast Bangladesh and north Myanmar coasts between Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh) and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) [Source BMD & IMD] , Landfall time: 14 May 2023 Around 12:00pm BST (Source IMD) Current Situation:
• Maximum sustained wind speed within 74 km ofthe very severe cyclone centre is about 140 kph rising to 160 kph in gusts/squalls. Sea will remain very high near the storm centre.
• Maritime ports of Cox's bazar and Chattogram have been advised to lower local warning signal number four but instead to hoise Great Danger signal no. 08 (eight). Maritime ports of Mongla and Payra have been advised to hoist local warning signal number four.
• The coastal districts of Cox’s Bazar, Chattogram, Feni, Noakhali, Lakshmipur, Chandpur, Bhola, and their outshore islands and chars will come under Great Danger signal no. 08 (eight).
• The low-lying areas of the coastal districts of Cox’s Bazar and Chattogram and their offshore islands and chars are likely to be inundated by the wind-driven surge height 08-12 feet above normal astronomical tide. The low-lying areas of the coastal districts of Feni, Noakhali, Lakshmipur, Chandpur, and Bhola and their offshore islands and chars are likely to be inundated by the wind-driven surge height 05-07 feet above normal astronomical tide.
• All fishing boats and trawlers over north bay have been advised to remain in shelter till further notice.
• There is a probability of heavy to very heavy rainfall over the southeast coast of Bangladesh.
• According to IMD, the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “Mocha” (pronounced as “Mokha”) over Central Bay of Bengal moved nearly north-northeastwards with a speed of 12 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centered at 1730 hours IST of today, the 12th May 2023 over the same region near latitude 14.6°N and longitude 88.6°E, about 550 km northwest of Port Blair, 730 km south-southwest of Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh) and 760 km southwest of Sittwe (Myanmar).
• It is very likely to move north-northeastwards and intensify further into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm over the East-central Bay of Bengal during the night of today, the 12th of May 2023. It is likely to cross southeast Bangladesh and north Myanmar coasts between Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh) and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar), close to Sittwe (Myanmar) around noon of 14th May 2023 as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 150-160 mph gusting to 175 kmph.
Bangladesh and Myanmar brace for the worst as Cyclone Mocha makes landfall
Powerful Cyclone Mocha made landfall on Myanmar’s west coast Sunday and is barreling toward millions of vulnerable people with winds equivalent to a Category 5 Atlantic hurricane as aid agencies warn of the potential for a major disaster.
Since forming in the Bay of Bengal early Thursday, the tropical cyclone has intensified, with sustained winds of 259 kilometers per hour (161 mph) and gusts of up to 315 kph (195 mph), according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on Sunday.
The Bangladesh Meteorological Department said Sunday that Mocha is likely to move north-northeasterly across Rakhine State in Myanmar and “completely cross” southeastern Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar, host to the world’s largest refugee camp.
Aid agencies in Bangladesh and Myanmar say they have launched a massive emergency plan as the storm brings strong winds and rain to the region along with the threat of flooding and landslides.
Disaster response teams and more than 3,000 local volunteers who have been trained in disaster preparedness and first aid have been put on standby in the camps, and a national cyclone early warning system is in place, according to Sanjeev Kafley, Head of Delegation of the IFRC Bangladesh Delegation.
Kafley said there are 7,500 emergency shelter kits, 4,000 hygiene kits, and 2,000 water containers ready to be distributed.
In addition, mobile health teams and dozens of ambulances are ready to respond to refugees and Bangladeshis in need, with specially trained teams on standby to help the elderly, children, and the disabled, Arjun Jain, UN Principal Coordinator for the Rohingya Refugee Response in Bangladesh, told CNN.
“We expect this cyclone to have a more severe impact than any other natural disaster they have faced in the past five years,” said Jain. “At this stage, we just don’t know where the cyclone will make landfall and with what intensity. So we are hoping for the best but are preparing for the worst.”
Evacuations of people in low-lying areas or those with serious medical conditions had begun, he said.
In Myanmar, residents in coastal areas of Rakhine State and Ayeyarwady region have started to evacuate and seek shelter at schools and monasteries.
Hundreds of Red Cross volunteers are on standby and the agency is relocating vulnerable people and raising awareness of the storm in villages and townships, the IFRC’s Kafley said.
The last storm to make landfall with a similar strength was Tropical Cyclone Giri back in October 2010. It made landfall as a high-end Category 4 equivalent storm with maximum winds of 250 kph (155 mph).
Giri caused over 150 fatalities and roughly 70% of the city of Kyaukphyu was destroyed. According to the United Nations, roughly 15,000 homes were destroyed in Rakhine state during the storm.
About 1 million members of the stateless Rohingya community, who fled persecution in nearby Myanmar during a military crackdown in 2017, are living in the sprawling and overcrowded camps in Cox’s Bazar.
Most live in bamboo and tarpaulin shelters perched on hilly slopes that are vulnerable to strong winds, rain, and landslides.
Jain said the shelters can only withstand wind speeds of 40 kph (24 mph) and he expects winds from Cyclone Mocha to exceed that.
“Low-lying areas of the camps are likely to flood rapidly, destroying shelters, facilities such as learning centers, as well as infrastructure such as bridges that have been constructed with bamboo,” he said.
The cyclone adds to an already disastrous year for the Rohingya, and without more funds from the international community, Jain said they won’t have enough to rebuild.
“They faced a 17% cut in their food rations earlier this year due to funding cuts and we expect a further cut in their rations in the coming months. 16,000 refugees lost their homes in a devastating fire in March. And now they must deal with the cyclone. Unfortunately, we don’t even have the funds to help refugees rebuild their homes and facilities if the devastation is severe,” he said.
There are also concerns for 30,000 Rohingya refugees housed on an isolated and flood-prone island facility in the Bay of Bengal, called Bhasan Char. The UN refugee agency said volunteers and medical teams are on standby and cyclone shelters and food provisions are available for those living on the island.
In Myanmar, about 6 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance in Rakhine state and across the northwest, with 1.2 million displaced, according to the UN humanitarian agency.
The past few decades have seen an increase in the strength of tropical cyclones affecting countries in parts of Asia and recent research predicts they could have double the destructive power in the region by the end of the century.
While scientists are still trying to understand ways climate change is affecting cyclones, a slew of research has linked human-caused global warming to more potent and destructive cyclones.
Tropical cyclones (also known as hurricanes, typhoons, and tropical storms depending on ocean basin and intensity), feed off ocean heat. They need temperatures of at least around 27 degrees Celsius (80 Fahrenheit Fahrenheit) to form, and the warmer the ocean, the more moisture they can take up.
The waters in the Bay of Bengal are currently around 30 degrees Celsius (86 Fahrenheit Fahrenheit), about 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than average for May.
As the climate crisis pushes up the temperatures of oceans – which absorb around 90% of the world’s excess heat – it provides ideal conditions for cyclones to gain strength.
Warmer oceans also increase the chances of cyclones rapidly intensifying, according to recent research.
Climate-change-fueled sea-level rise adds to the risks, worsening storm surges from tropical cyclones and allowing them to travel further inland.
Bangladesh and Myanmar are particularly threatened because they are low-lying, as well as being home to some of the world’s poorest people.
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